Positive News on Politics and Oil
[Citi Report]
News improves - Latest conditions, with lower oil prices, positive news on the
political situation, coupled with signs of Jokowi pushing for infrastructure-related
projects, should be seen as positive catalysts for the market. We maintain our index
target of 5,925 by end of 2015. The market is trading on 14.6x 1-fwd PER. Our top
picks are ASII, BBNI, BBRI, SMGR, INTP, CPIN, UNTR, BSDE, CTRA and DSNG.
Fuel price hike to impact earnings; min wage hike and BPJS to the rescue —
We expect the fuel price hike to impact earnings in 4Q14-1Q15 but we expect a
recovery starting in 2Q15. Higher minimum wages, direct cash transfer and
implementation of universal health care (BPJS) should somewhat help purchasing
power and consumer confidence. Our conversation with middle- to lower-middleincome
people indicated these people had started reducing their medical expenses
for other purposes due to free medical services from the government.
Subsidized oil prices; government is making money selling at subsidized
price — With lower Brent oil prices at US$66/bbl, this should translate to gasoline
prices of around Rp7,000/litre vs a subsidized price of Rp8,500 for gasoline and
Rp7,500/litre for diesel. As such, currently the government is making money selling
at the subsidized price. The government could save more than US$20bn in fuel
subsides for the next year if the oil price remains at this level. There could be a
chance that the government could lower the subsidized price next year and
implement a fixed-price subsidy or even float the fuel prices based on the market.
But this will need parliamentary approval.
Indonesian marketing feedback in Asia last week - General feedback from
clients is mainly neutral to slightly positive on Indonesia. Main topics discussed are
1) Golkar split-up scenarios and parliament situation; 2) impact on the fuel price
hike and lower oil prices; 3) next catalysts for the market, especially for 1H15; 4)
plays for the Indonesia universal healthcare reform; 5) plays on the oil and gas
reform, and thus we highlight names in the supporting oil & gas sectors. Not much
pushback for our Banking picks (BBRI, BBNI) and there are quite a bit of interest in
BMRI. Most also agree on property picks. Investors stay cautious on the consumer
sector due to the fuel-price hike. Pushbacks are strongest on our contrarian view,
ASII and UNTR, due to competition in the auto sector and low coal prices.
Complete Report - 9 Dec 2014 for Prospect 2015
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Sunday, December 15, 2013
Consumer Goods for year 2014... is it always good?
In the mood to spend
November 2013’s CCI uptick marked the second month of improvement from the low seen after the fuel price hike. Retail sales increased slightly in Oct, beating earlier expectations and reversing the previous month’s pullback. Recent data show that consumption is still strong.
BI’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was driven by the perception of better job prospects, income expectations and business climate. Nov sales for selected retailers supported the rise in confidence. We stay Overweight on the sector as consumption remains robust. The upcoming election may further boost spending, hence our preference for retailers with higher exposure to broad-based spending, i.e. MDS and Ramayana. (Disclaimer)
Full report click here or contact me.
November 2013’s CCI uptick marked the second month of improvement from the low seen after the fuel price hike. Retail sales increased slightly in Oct, beating earlier expectations and reversing the previous month’s pullback. Recent data show that consumption is still strong.
BI’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was driven by the perception of better job prospects, income expectations and business climate. Nov sales for selected retailers supported the rise in confidence. We stay Overweight on the sector as consumption remains robust. The upcoming election may further boost spending, hence our preference for retailers with higher exposure to broad-based spending, i.e. MDS and Ramayana. (Disclaimer)
Full report click here or contact me.
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
Strategi Trading-Investasi ketika IHSG break-out
IHSG tertinggi th 2012 pada 30 Oktober di level 4364. Tutup tahun 4316. Mulai 3 Jan indeks break-high 4399, 4 Jan 4410. Setelah itu koreksi hingga 4317 pada 10 Jan.
18 Jan rekor baru +67 pt menjadi 4465. 22 dan 28 Jan koreksi ke 4416.
1 Feb cetak rekor baru 4481. 4 Feb 4490. 5Feb 4498. 7Feb 4503. 12Feb +44pt menjadi 4548.
Sekarang saat ini ditulis jam 10 pagi 13 Feb, ihsg +22 di 4570 !
How high can you go? Pertanyaan ini menjadi tidak banyak artinya. The most important question is: how can we make-money from this slowly-higher motion?
Buy high- sell higher saham-saham yg bergerak break-out; atau
Buy on weakness - sell on strength saham-saham yg bergerak flat.
18 Jan rekor baru +67 pt menjadi 4465. 22 dan 28 Jan koreksi ke 4416.
1 Feb cetak rekor baru 4481. 4 Feb 4490. 5Feb 4498. 7Feb 4503. 12Feb +44pt menjadi 4548.
Sekarang saat ini ditulis jam 10 pagi 13 Feb, ihsg +22 di 4570 !
How high can you go? Pertanyaan ini menjadi tidak banyak artinya. The most important question is: how can we make-money from this slowly-higher motion?
Buy high- sell higher saham-saham yg bergerak break-out; atau
Buy on weakness - sell on strength saham-saham yg bergerak flat.
Monday, February 11, 2013
Prospek Investasi th 2013
Dengan kondisi pasar keuangan dunia dimana semua negara bahkan Jepang pun sekarang mencetak mata-uangnya, maka bisa dikatakan kondisi ini mengakibatkan laju inflasi global. Dampaknya harga barang akan naik relatif terhadap nilai-uang, termasuk harga saham.
Tentu saham-saham yang dianggap sebagai 'barang' ini adalah saham yang memberikan kinerja yang baik, atau setidaknya memiliki prospek yang baik.
Sektor banking masih menjadi andalan karena mencatat rekor pertumbuhan laba positif. Demikian juga beberapa saham properti dan turunannya seperti konstruksi dan semen turut membukukan pertumbuhan laba dan potensi berkembangnya proyek-proyek dan kontrak-kontrak baru.
Sektor konsumsi sedikit gamang, bila inflasi tidak terkendali maka tahun ini profit margin emiten konsumsi dapat tertekan. Sebaiknya Sell-on-strength / sell-on-news laporan keuangan tahun 2012 pada periode Februari-April.
Sektor tambang energi seperti batubara, banyak analis yang meyakini bahwa harga komoditas dan harga sahamnya telah mencapai level terendah di tahun yang lalu. Maka periode awal tahun ini dapat menjadi momentum investasi-spekulatif saham-saham batubara selektif yang telah memiliki management yang baik seperti Adaro Energy dan sejenisnya.
Dan tentunya setiap saat wajib memperhatikan up-date corporate-action emiten-emiten tertentu. Momentum inilah yang potensial dapat menghasilkan return capital gain yang jauh lebih tinggi dibandingkan potensi kenaikan indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG).
Tentu saham-saham yang dianggap sebagai 'barang' ini adalah saham yang memberikan kinerja yang baik, atau setidaknya memiliki prospek yang baik.
Sektor banking masih menjadi andalan karena mencatat rekor pertumbuhan laba positif. Demikian juga beberapa saham properti dan turunannya seperti konstruksi dan semen turut membukukan pertumbuhan laba dan potensi berkembangnya proyek-proyek dan kontrak-kontrak baru.
Sektor konsumsi sedikit gamang, bila inflasi tidak terkendali maka tahun ini profit margin emiten konsumsi dapat tertekan. Sebaiknya Sell-on-strength / sell-on-news laporan keuangan tahun 2012 pada periode Februari-April.
Sektor tambang energi seperti batubara, banyak analis yang meyakini bahwa harga komoditas dan harga sahamnya telah mencapai level terendah di tahun yang lalu. Maka periode awal tahun ini dapat menjadi momentum investasi-spekulatif saham-saham batubara selektif yang telah memiliki management yang baik seperti Adaro Energy dan sejenisnya.
Dan tentunya setiap saat wajib memperhatikan up-date corporate-action emiten-emiten tertentu. Momentum inilah yang potensial dapat menghasilkan return capital gain yang jauh lebih tinggi dibandingkan potensi kenaikan indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG).
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Sept 2011: [Citi] Indonesian Strategy
No Longer the Best Performing Market; Time to Accumulate?
The JCI has fallen 10.5% YTD and 11.7% in USD terms; no longer an outlier —After a significant correction in the past two weeks, Indonesia was no longer the best performing market in Asia Pac as of Sept 26. Indonesia is now down 11.0% in USD terms and similar to performance in China, Japan and The Philippines. After strengthening by close to 6% from the beginning of the year to August, Indonesia has now depreciated by 1.3% YTD after significant weaknesses in the past two week.
Valuations are now trading at 11x 1-year forward PER, around 0.5SD below the 6-year historical mean; what are the worst case scenarios? — The index is now trading on 1-year forward PER of 11x, around 0.5SD below its 6-year historical mean. During the global financial crisis the index fell to as low as 1.75SD below its 6-year historical mean. Although we believe that Indonesia’s fundamental economy is different now than in 2008, 1.75SD below the historical mean translates to a 1-year PER of 8.1x, which translates to 2,500.
Outflows from the bond (US$3.5b) and equity (US$1.7b) markets continue, but at a slower pace — Investors sold due to problems in the Euro zone, a possible recession in the US and concerns over rupiah volatility. Total outflows in the bond market reached US$3.5b+ this month while YTD equity net inflows were flat (USD1.7bn in the past two months) due to significant outflows over the past two months. In our last strategy report, Indonesia Equity Strategy - Outflow and Correction in the Government Bond Market; What Does It Mean for the Equity Market?, Sept 21, 2011, we indicated that about Rp72trn (US$8b) of government bonds are prone to unwinding.
Indonesian fundamental economy remains intact; business people remain confident — Indonesian economic growth remains solid and should be among the fastest in Asia Pacific over the next two years due to its less dependence on exports (25% gross exports to GDP), the second lowest after India. Our conversation with people in the real sector also indicates that things are still doing fine; they are still spending and expanding capacity despite volatility in the stock market and exchange rates. They seem to agree that this volatility will be short-lived so long as the Central Bank can manage the rupiah (The Central Bank has been accumulating US$30b of forex reserves in the past eight months to US$126b at the peak).
Bottom-fishing at this level? — We believe that clients could start to bottom fish slowly especially for stocks that have been bombed-out massively, but that have a defensive earnings outlook. We provide the list of the top 30 stocks and those that we cover. Amongst bombed-out stocks are mainly commodity resources stocks such as Indofood Agri, PGAS, Inco, and Adaro. Among our top picks, Indocement (down 25% YTD and 38% from the peak), Mandiri (-14% and -32%) and United Tractors (-14% and -34%) performed below the market’s YTD performance.
The JCI has fallen 10.5% YTD and 11.7% in USD terms; no longer an outlier —After a significant correction in the past two weeks, Indonesia was no longer the best performing market in Asia Pac as of Sept 26. Indonesia is now down 11.0% in USD terms and similar to performance in China, Japan and The Philippines. After strengthening by close to 6% from the beginning of the year to August, Indonesia has now depreciated by 1.3% YTD after significant weaknesses in the past two week.
Valuations are now trading at 11x 1-year forward PER, around 0.5SD below the 6-year historical mean; what are the worst case scenarios? — The index is now trading on 1-year forward PER of 11x, around 0.5SD below its 6-year historical mean. During the global financial crisis the index fell to as low as 1.75SD below its 6-year historical mean. Although we believe that Indonesia’s fundamental economy is different now than in 2008, 1.75SD below the historical mean translates to a 1-year PER of 8.1x, which translates to 2,500.
Outflows from the bond (US$3.5b) and equity (US$1.7b) markets continue, but at a slower pace — Investors sold due to problems in the Euro zone, a possible recession in the US and concerns over rupiah volatility. Total outflows in the bond market reached US$3.5b+ this month while YTD equity net inflows were flat (USD1.7bn in the past two months) due to significant outflows over the past two months. In our last strategy report, Indonesia Equity Strategy - Outflow and Correction in the Government Bond Market; What Does It Mean for the Equity Market?, Sept 21, 2011, we indicated that about Rp72trn (US$8b) of government bonds are prone to unwinding.
Indonesian fundamental economy remains intact; business people remain confident — Indonesian economic growth remains solid and should be among the fastest in Asia Pacific over the next two years due to its less dependence on exports (25% gross exports to GDP), the second lowest after India. Our conversation with people in the real sector also indicates that things are still doing fine; they are still spending and expanding capacity despite volatility in the stock market and exchange rates. They seem to agree that this volatility will be short-lived so long as the Central Bank can manage the rupiah (The Central Bank has been accumulating US$30b of forex reserves in the past eight months to US$126b at the peak).
Bottom-fishing at this level? — We believe that clients could start to bottom fish slowly especially for stocks that have been bombed-out massively, but that have a defensive earnings outlook. We provide the list of the top 30 stocks and those that we cover. Amongst bombed-out stocks are mainly commodity resources stocks such as Indofood Agri, PGAS, Inco, and Adaro. Among our top picks, Indocement (down 25% YTD and 38% from the peak), Mandiri (-14% and -32%) and United Tractors (-14% and -34%) performed below the market’s YTD performance.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Investasi Infrastruktur (Toll Road)
Jakarta - Laba bersih PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk (CMNP) meroket 1.190,7% ke Rp 399,49 miliar di semester I-2010 dari tahun sebelumnya pada periode yang sama Rp 30,95 miliar. Laba per saham pun naik menjadi Rp 199,75 per lembar dari sebelumnya tahun lalu sebanyak Rp 15,48 per lembar saham.
Pendapatan perseroan pun naik di semester I-2010 menjadi Rp 365,7 miliar dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya Rp 290,97 miliar.
Mayoritas pendapatan tersebut masih disumbang oleh pendapatan jalan tol sebanyak Rp 364,73 miliar di semester I-2010, sedangkan tahun lalu hanya sebanyak Rp 289,97 miliar. Sementara pendapatan sewa malah turun dari Rp 1 triliun menjadi Rp 970 miliar di semester I-2010.
Naiknya laba disumbang menurunnya total kewajiban CMNP sebanyak 32,6% dari Rp 1,25 triliun menjadi Rp 845,12 miliar. Dari utang tersebut, jumlah kewajiban lancar tersisa Rp 115,65 miliar, dari sebelumnya sekitar Rp 1,23 triliun.
Pendapatan perseroan pun naik di semester I-2010 menjadi Rp 365,7 miliar dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya Rp 290,97 miliar.
Mayoritas pendapatan tersebut masih disumbang oleh pendapatan jalan tol sebanyak Rp 364,73 miliar di semester I-2010, sedangkan tahun lalu hanya sebanyak Rp 289,97 miliar. Sementara pendapatan sewa malah turun dari Rp 1 triliun menjadi Rp 970 miliar di semester I-2010.
Naiknya laba disumbang menurunnya total kewajiban CMNP sebanyak 32,6% dari Rp 1,25 triliun menjadi Rp 845,12 miliar. Dari utang tersebut, jumlah kewajiban lancar tersisa Rp 115,65 miliar, dari sebelumnya sekitar Rp 1,23 triliun.
Monday, August 2, 2010
CIMB Group Pastikan Rencana Dual Listing di BEI
Jakarta - CIMB Group, induk usaha dari PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk (BNGA) menyatakan kesiapannya untuk melakukan proses dual listing di Indonesia. Namun, proses ini masih harus menunggu peraturan perdagangan yang tengah digodok Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI).
"Kita pasti listing di Indonesia. Masih nunggu peraturan," jelas CEO CIMB Group, Dato' Sri Nazir Razak di gedung BEI SCBD Jakarta, Senin (2/8/2010).
Hal yang sama disampaikan Presiden Direktur Bank CIMB Niaga, Arwin Rasyid. Dirinya menerangkan bahwa perseroan hari ini hanya melakukan kunjungan kehormatan ke BEI.
"Kita hanya berupa courtesy. Kami siap. Mereka (BEI) menjanjikan untuk segera digodok (peraturan)," tambah Arwin.
Sebelumnya, Direktur Perdagangan dan Pengaturan Anggota Bursa BEI Wan Wei Yiong menyatakan kesiapannya dalam rancangan peraturan perdagangan, terkait perusahaan asing yang akan melakukan pencatatan ganda (dual listing) di Indonesia, dalam bentuk Sertifikasi Penitipan Efek Indonesia (SPEI). Targetnya, rancangan final sudah bisa diserahkan ke Bapepam-LK pada akhir Juli 2010.
BEI juga telah menggelar pertemuan dengan seluruh pelaku pasar, Anggota Bursa (AB), termasuk Bank Kostodian untuk mensosialisasikan draf tersebut. Selain draf peraturan yang dibuat BEI, KSEI bersama KPEI juga melakukan hal yang sama untuk memuluskan perusahaan asing yang akan melakukan dual listing.
"(SPEI) Kita atur, sama seperti saham. KPEI juga buat aturan settlement-nya seperti apa. Apa sama dengan settlement biasa. KSEI juga, penempatan di Bank Kustodian," kata Yiong waktu itu.
"Kita pasti listing di Indonesia. Masih nunggu peraturan," jelas CEO CIMB Group, Dato' Sri Nazir Razak di gedung BEI SCBD Jakarta, Senin (2/8/2010).
Hal yang sama disampaikan Presiden Direktur Bank CIMB Niaga, Arwin Rasyid. Dirinya menerangkan bahwa perseroan hari ini hanya melakukan kunjungan kehormatan ke BEI.
"Kita hanya berupa courtesy. Kami siap. Mereka (BEI) menjanjikan untuk segera digodok (peraturan)," tambah Arwin.
Sebelumnya, Direktur Perdagangan dan Pengaturan Anggota Bursa BEI Wan Wei Yiong menyatakan kesiapannya dalam rancangan peraturan perdagangan, terkait perusahaan asing yang akan melakukan pencatatan ganda (dual listing) di Indonesia, dalam bentuk Sertifikasi Penitipan Efek Indonesia (SPEI). Targetnya, rancangan final sudah bisa diserahkan ke Bapepam-LK pada akhir Juli 2010.
BEI juga telah menggelar pertemuan dengan seluruh pelaku pasar, Anggota Bursa (AB), termasuk Bank Kostodian untuk mensosialisasikan draf tersebut. Selain draf peraturan yang dibuat BEI, KSEI bersama KPEI juga melakukan hal yang sama untuk memuluskan perusahaan asing yang akan melakukan dual listing.
"(SPEI) Kita atur, sama seperti saham. KPEI juga buat aturan settlement-nya seperti apa. Apa sama dengan settlement biasa. KSEI juga, penempatan di Bank Kustodian," kata Yiong waktu itu.
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